Scouting Report
Robert Thomas holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 51.9% vs Kuraly 51.0% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thomas 77.3%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 69.4%
Neutral zone
Thomas 53.4%
Result
Robert Thomas favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Thomas
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Thomas
Kuraly
Last 6: Thomas 4-2 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
0
Thomas
Kuraly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Thomas
Kuraly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
1
0
Thomas
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (652)
52.6% (464)
-2.3%
Power Play
61.5% (104)
100.0% (1)
-38.5%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (120)
46.5% (155)
+7.7%
On power play, Kuraly has a +38.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Thomas shoots right. Kuraly is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (235).
Home / Away
Thomas
Kuraly
Home
52.0% (400)
55.9% (322)
Away
52.3% (476)
46.0% (298)
By Period
Thomas
Kuraly
P1
49.6%
55.9%
P2
55.4%
46.7%
P3
51.0%
50.7%
OT
57.1%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.9%
50.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Kuraly
66.0%▲
61.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:25 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 17:11 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 11:49 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 3 | 02:27 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:48 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 4, 2025 | 1 | 19:39 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |