Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 51.9% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-4.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 84.5%
Defensive zone
Stamkos 54.0%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 67.0%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 70.3%
29.7%
70.3%
Thomas
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Thomas
Stamkos
Last 8: Thomas 5-3 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
1
2
Thomas
Stamkos
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
0
Thomas
Stamkos
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thomas
2
1
Thomas
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (652)
57.1% (368)
-6.8%
Power Play
61.5% (104)
55.2% (96)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (120)
50.0% (10)
+4.2%
On even strength, Stamkos has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Thomas is 52.5% vs right-shot opponents (255).
Thomas shoots right. Stamkos is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (121).
Home / Away
Thomas
Stamkos
Home
52.0% (400)
53.9% (230)
Away
52.3% (476)
59.0% (244)
By Period
Thomas
Stamkos
P1
49.6%
56.7%
P2
55.4%
54.1%
P3
51.0%
59.2%
OT
57.1%
62.5%
Final 5 min
50.9%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:51 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 17:16 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 14:09 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 16:41 | Neutral | Robert Thomas |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 16:39 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 15, 2025 | 1 | 16:20 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 11, 2025 | 1 | 18:49 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |