Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 51.9% vs Hertl 57.5% (-5.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 70.4%
Defensive zone
Thomas 68.9%
Neutral zone
Thomas 54.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
Thomas
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Thomas
Hertl
Last 10: Thomas 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
6
Thomas
Hertl
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
5
0
Thomas
Hertl
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Thomas
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.3% (652)
58.7% (858)
-8.4%
Power Play
61.5% (104)
55.8% (285)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
54.2% (120)
62.9% (35)
-8.7%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +8.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thomas is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (621).
Thomas shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Thomas
Hertl
Home
52.0% (400)
60.1% (599)
Away
52.3% (476)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Thomas
Hertl
P1
49.6%
52.4%
P2
55.4%
63.9%
P3
51.0%
58.5%
OT
57.1%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.9%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.2%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 07:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 07:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 19:50 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 07:09 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 14:25 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |