Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Thomas 51.6% vs Hertl 54.3% (-2.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 42-36 in 78 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 54.7%
Defensive zone
Thomas 50.6%
Neutral zone
Hertl 52.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 52.1%
47.9%
52.1%
Thomas
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
42
(78 meetings)
36
42
Thomas
Hertl
Last 10: Thomas 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
13
17
Thomas
Hertl
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Thomas
16
11
Thomas
Hertl
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
14
Thomas
Hertl
21 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Thomas
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.1% (5,387)
53.9% (8,303)
-2.8%
Power Play
55.8% (927)
59.2% (1,995)
-3.4%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (697)
46.3% (806)
+3.9%
On penalty kill, Thomas has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Thomas is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,967).
Thomas shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Thomas
Hertl
Home
50.9% (3,484)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
52.3% (3,527)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Thomas
Hertl
P1
50.7%
53.6%
P2
53.0%
54.2%
P3
50.8%
55.3%
OT
59.2%
46.9%
Final 5 min
53.3%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Thomas
56.0%▲
47.5%
51.6%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 19:46 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 12:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:58 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 18:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 07:34 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 07:17 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 19:57 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 19:50 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 3 | 17:39 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 2, 2026 | 1 | 07:09 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 17:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 1 | 14:25 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3 | 18:42 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3 | 01:37 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 06:43 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 3 | 06:00 | Offensive | Robert Thomas |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 19:56 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 20, 2025 | 2 | 12:47 | Defensive | Robert Thomas |