Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Colton on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Colton 51.1% vs Hertl 54.3% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Colton leads 10-8 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 76.8%
Defensive zone
Hertl 56.2%
Neutral zone
Hertl 64.3%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 64.6%
35.4%
64.6%
Colton
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
8
(18 meetings)
10
8
Colton
Hertl
Last 10: Colton 3-7 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
3
Colton
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Colton
4
3
Colton
Hertl
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Colton
4
2
Colton
Hertl
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Colton
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (1,803)
53.9% (8,303)
-2.3%
Power Play
48.8% (162)
59.2% (1,995)
-10.4%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
46.3% (806)
-11.8%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Colton is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,297).
Colton shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
Colton
Hertl
Home
52.0% (1,015)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
50.3% (979)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Colton
Hertl
P1
53.7%
53.6%
P2
52.6%
54.2%
P3
47.9%
55.3%
OT
25.0%
46.9%
Final 5 min
46.7%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Colton
46.0%▲
44.0%
51.2%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 09:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 06:59 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 3 | 04:21 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 04:15 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 2 | 01:22 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Oct 9, 2024 | 1 | 14:02 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 2 | 06:40 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 14, 2024 | 1 | 10:08 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 2 | 03:44 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 1 | 19:08 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Feb 7, 2023 | 3 | 03:32 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ross Colton |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 13:12 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 2 | 01:50 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 12:51 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ross Colton |