Scouting Report
Ross Colton holds a +8.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Colton 51.1% vs Novak 43.0% (+8.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 74.5%
Defensive zone
Colton 63.4%
Neutral zone
Novak 54.2%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 51.2%
48.8%
51.2%
Colton
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Colton
Novak
Last 5: Colton 2-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Colton
1
0
Colton
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Colton
Novak
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Colton
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Colton
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (1,803)
41.8% (1,568)
+9.8%
Power Play
48.8% (162)
51.5% (134)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
34.5% (29)
50.0% (2)
-15.5%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +15.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Colton is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,297).
Colton shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Colton
Novak
Home
52.0% (1,015)
45.1% (831)
Away
50.3% (979)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Colton
Novak
P1
53.7%
43.7%
P2
52.6%
42.8%
P3
47.9%
41.1%
OT
25.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
46.7%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Colton
46.0%▲
44.0%
51.2%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 17:16 | Defensive | Ross Colton |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 09:23 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 02:00 | Offensive | Ross Colton |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 18:25 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 02:01 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |