Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Carpenter wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 51.2% vs Hartman 45.3% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 74.5%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 85.6%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 63.7%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 56.7%
56.7%
43.3%
Carpenter
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Carpenter
Hartman
Last 7: Carpenter 4-3 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
0
3
Carpenter
Hartman
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
3
0
Carpenter
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
0
Carpenter
Hartman
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (299)
44.8% (936)
+8.4%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
49.4% (154)
-16.1%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (86)
33.3% (54)
+13.2%
On power play, Hartman has a +16.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Carpenter is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Carpenter shoots right. Hartman is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (344).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Hartman
Home
54.6% (207)
47.4% (568)
Away
48.1% (181)
42.4% (576)
By Period
Carpenter
Hartman
P1
52.3%
47.2%
P2
51.5%
43.4%
P3
50.8%
43.8%
Final 5 min
44.2%
49.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Hartman
44.0%▲
41.5%
44.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2022 | 1 | 17:12 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 1 | 06:08 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 14:08 | Neutral | Ryan Carpenter |
| Feb 2, 2022 | 2 | 03:45 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 22, 2022 | 3 | 09:21 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 2 | 05:04 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Jan 21, 2022 | 1 | 10:35 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |