Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.5% vs 51.0%). Carpenter wins 57.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carpenter 51.2% vs Stamkos 50.9% (+0.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 82.2%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 74.3%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 50.7%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 74.3%
74.3%
25.7%
Carpenter
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Carpenter
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
1
0
Carpenter
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carpenter
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
53.2% (299)
49.3% (789)
+3.9%
Power Play
33.3% (3)
56.9% (181)
-23.6%
Penalty Kill
46.5% (86)
54.1% (98)
-7.6%
On power play, Stamkos has a +23.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Carpenter is 57.7% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Carpenter shoots right. Stamkos is 47.0% vs right-shot opponents (270).
Home / Away
Carpenter
Stamkos
Home
54.6% (207)
52.0% (512)
Away
48.1% (181)
50.2% (556)
By Period
Carpenter
Stamkos
P1
52.3%
42.1%
P2
51.5%
56.4%
P3
50.8%
53.7%
Final 5 min
44.2%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Stamkos
56.0%▬
56.0%
51.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2022 | 2 | 04:35 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |