Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Donato wins 44.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 45.1% vs Carrick 51.9% (-7.3%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 11-4 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Donato 93.9%
Defensive zone
Donato 62.5%
Neutral zone
Donato 80.3%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 78.0%
78.0%
22.0%
Donato
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
11
(15 meetings)
4
11
Donato
Carrick
Last 10: Donato 3-7 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Donato
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
4
Donato
Carrick
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
5
Donato
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (1,096)
51.9% (2,420)
-7.5%
Power Play
46.3% (240)
61.3% (75)
-15.0%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
50.7% (408)
-14.3%
On power play, Carrick has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Donato is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (492).
Donato shoots left. Carrick is 52.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,090).
Home / Away
Donato
Carrick
Home
47.7% (708)
51.0% (1,377)
Away
41.3% (639)
52.9% (1,526)
By Period
Donato
Carrick
P1
43.5%
51.5%
P2
45.4%
52.0%
P3
44.4%
52.4%
Final 5 min
46.9%
49.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
60.0%▲
50.5%
44.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
55.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2025 | 2 | 10:38 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 05:38 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 02:09 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 3 | 02:01 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 15:16 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 07:58 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 5, 2025 | 2 | 03:38 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 9, 2024 | 2 | 09:08 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:05 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 07:48 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 3 | 07:38 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 12:26 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 09:48 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 2 | 06:46 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Dec 10, 2019 | 1 | 07:30 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |