Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Donato wins 43.9% vs right-shot opponents — Wright shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 44.7% vs Wright 43.3% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Donato 60.7%
Defensive zone
Wright 53.2%
Neutral zone
Donato 53.9%
Result
Ryan Donato favored at 53.0%
53.0%
47.0%
Donato
Wright
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Donato
Wright
Last 9: Donato 5-4 Wright
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
2
1
Donato
Wright
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Donato
Wright
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Donato
Wright
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Wright
Edge
Even Strength
44.0% (1,218)
42.7% (1,326)
+1.3%
Power Play
46.0% (248)
45.1% (133)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (12)
33.3% (6)
+8.4%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Wright shoots right. Donato is 43.9% vs right-shot opponents (569).
Donato shoots left. Wright is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,080).
Home / Away
Donato
Wright
Home
47.2% (743)
44.2% (746)
Away
41.4% (735)
41.4% (719)
By Period
Donato
Wright
P1
43.8%
44.5%
P2
44.9%
40.5%
P3
43.7%
44.0%
OT
70.0%
20.0%
Final 5 min
47.3%
41.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
40.0%▼
46.0%
44.3%
Wright
42.0%▬
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | 3 | 14:01 | Neutral | Shane Wright |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 10:18 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 2 | 06:45 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 15:09 | Offensive | Shane Wright |
| Nov 3, 2025 | 1 | 15:03 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:35 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 18, 2025 | 3 | 13:18 | Neutral | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:41 | Defensive | Shane Wright |
| Nov 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:35 | Defensive | Shane Wright |