Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Greene wins 43.0% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greene 43.9% vs Aho 50.5% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greene 73.0%
Defensive zone
Greene 94.3%
Neutral zone
Greene 81.4%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 79.0%
79.0%
21.0%
Greene
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Greene
Aho
Last 7: Greene 1-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Greene
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
5
Greene
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greene
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
43.6% (512)
50.5% (878)
-6.9%
Power Play
46.8% (62)
53.5% (144)
-6.7%
Penalty Kill
40.1% (167)
44.3% (61)
-4.2%
On even strength, Aho has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Greene is 43.0% vs left-shot opponents (554).
Greene shoots right. Aho is 55.5% vs right-shot opponents (380).
Home / Away
Greene
Aho
Home
47.4% (382)
53.8% (571)
Away
38.4% (359)
46.9% (512)
By Period
Greene
Aho
P1
46.8%
49.0%
P2
37.6%
51.7%
P3
45.2%
50.3%
OT
50.0%
58.8%
Final 5 min
42.1%
49.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
43.0%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 12:11 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 09:51 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:28 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |