Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +8.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Greene wins 42.5% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Greene 43.7% vs Aho 51.3% (-8.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Greene 80.4%
Defensive zone
Greene 94.9%
Neutral zone
Greene 84.5%
Result
Ryan Greene favored at 83.3%
83.3%
16.7%
Greene
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Greene
Aho
Last 7: Greene 1-6 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Greene
Aho
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Aho
0
5
Greene
Aho
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Greene
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
43.2% (530)
50.2% (6,646)
-7.0%
Power Play
46.8% (62)
58.9% (1,310)
-12.1%
Penalty Kill
40.1% (167)
46.5% (465)
-6.4%
On power play, Aho has a +12.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Greene is 42.5% vs left-shot opponents (565).
Greene shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Greene
Aho
Home
47.4% (382)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
38.2% (377)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Greene
Aho
P1
46.1%
51.1%
P2
37.6%
52.1%
P3
45.2%
50.8%
OT
50.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
41.7%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Greene
26.0%▼
34.0%
42.8%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 19:48 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 14:20 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 12:11 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 10:03 | Offensive | Ryan Greene |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 3 | 09:51 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 2 | 19:28 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 01:13 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |