Scouting Report
Sebastian Aho holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Aho on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Hartman wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Aho shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.4% vs Aho 51.3% (-6.0%)
H2H factor
Aho leads 13-10 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 62.0%
Defensive zone
Hartman 73.8%
Neutral zone
Hartman 65.5%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 65.5%
65.5%
34.5%
Hartman
Aho
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
13
(23 meetings)
10
13
Hartman
Aho
Last 10: Hartman 2-8 Aho
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Aho
3
9
Hartman
Aho
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
4
1
Hartman
Aho
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Hartman
Aho
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
Aho
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (4,279)
50.2% (6,646)
-5.0%
Power Play
47.3% (446)
58.9% (1,310)
-11.6%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (262)
46.5% (465)
-4.1%
On power play, Aho has a +11.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Aho shoots left. Hartman is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,596).
Hartman shoots right. Aho is 51.7% vs right-shot opponents (3,104).
Home / Away
Hartman
Aho
Home
46.7% (2,589)
52.4% (4,325)
Away
43.7% (2,398)
50.1% (4,096)
By Period
Hartman
Aho
P1
46.1%
51.1%
P2
42.9%
52.1%
P3
46.7%
50.8%
OT
53.8%
48.9%
Final 5 min
46.6%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.3%
Aho
60.0%▲
50.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 13:30 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 07:37 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 27, 2024 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 3 | 11:37 | Defensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 14:25 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 21, 2024 | 1 | 14:17 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Jan 19, 2023 | 2 | 11:49 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 05:16 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 3 | 05:04 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 17:14 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 09:08 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 09:05 | Offensive | Sebastian Aho |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 2 | 00:54 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 13:25 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 13:00 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 2, 2022 | 1 | 01:11 | Neutral | Sebastian Aho |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 05:02 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 07:09 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 06:53 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |