Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hartman wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.6% vs Hertl 57.5% (-12.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 57.3%
Defensive zone
Hartman 74.0%
Neutral zone
Hartman 63.8%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 57.1%
57.1%
42.9%
Hartman
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Hartman
Hertl
Last 8: Hartman 3-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
4
Hartman
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
2
1
Hartman
Hertl
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
0
Hartman
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.1% (874)
58.7% (858)
-13.6%
Power Play
47.4% (95)
55.8% (285)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (16)
62.9% (35)
-25.4%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Hartman is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (691).
Hartman shoots right. Hertl is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (442).
Home / Away
Hartman
Hertl
Home
45.0% (515)
60.1% (599)
Away
45.3% (470)
56.1% (579)
By Period
Hartman
Hertl
P1
47.3%
52.4%
P2
40.1%
63.9%
P3
48.3%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.2%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.2%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 16:21 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |