Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 25 meetings). Hartman wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hartman 45.4% vs Hertl 54.3% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 49-22 in 71 meetings
Offensive zone
Hartman 97.2%
Defensive zone
Hartman 92.0%
Neutral zone
Hartman 94.4%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 94.7%
94.7%
5.3%
Hartman
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
49
(71 meetings)
22
49
Hartman
Hertl
Last 10: Hartman 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
5
20
Hartman
Hertl
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
13
Hartman
Hertl
20 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
10
16
Hartman
Hertl
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hartman
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.2% (4,279)
53.9% (8,290)
-8.7%
Power Play
47.3% (446)
59.3% (1,991)
-12.0%
Penalty Kill
42.4% (262)
46.3% (806)
-3.9%
On power play, Hertl has a +12.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Hartman is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (3,596).
Hartman shoots right. Hertl is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (4,142).
Home / Away
Hartman
Hertl
Home
46.7% (2,589)
55.8% (5,365)
Away
43.7% (2,398)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
Hartman
Hertl
P1
46.1%
53.6%
P2
42.9%
54.1%
P3
46.7%
55.3%
OT
53.8%
46.9%
Final 5 min
46.6%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hartman
50.0%▬
50.0%
45.3%
Hertl
64.0%▲
60.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | 3 | 16:21 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 18:23 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 05:08 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 2 | 05:02 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 6, 2026 | 1 | 00:18 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 16:43 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 05:10 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 15:38 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 3 | 07:22 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 17:31 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 2 | 02:26 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 18:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2024 | 1 | 15:53 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 10:45 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:18 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 1 | 08:16 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 3 | 16:37 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 11, 2023 | 2 | 19:41 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |