Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.4% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-8.2%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 85.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 50.2%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 72.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 71.5%
28.5%
71.5%
McLeod
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
McLeod
O'Reilly
Last 10: McLeod 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
4
McLeod
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
4
0
McLeod
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McLeod
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (827)
55.7% (856)
-6.7%
Power Play
44.0% (91)
57.5% (233)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (272)
50.0% (144)
-7.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
McLeod shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
McLeod
O'Reilly
Home
48.5% (619)
55.5% (616)
Away
45.9% (571)
55.3% (617)
By Period
McLeod
O'Reilly
P1
52.7%
58.1%
P2
43.9%
54.9%
P3
45.8%
53.9%
OT
35.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 15:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 19:43 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 02:49 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 03:53 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |