Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (72% H2H, 18 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 49.5% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-6.6%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 26-17 in 43 meetings
Offensive zone
McLeod 90.7%
Defensive zone
McLeod 78.8%
Neutral zone
McLeod 86.3%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 85.9%
85.9%
14.1%
McLeod
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
17
-
26
(43 meetings)
17
26
McLeod
O'Reilly
Last 10: McLeod 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
5
13
McLeod
O'Reilly
18 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
9
4
McLeod
O'Reilly
13 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
9
McLeod
O'Reilly
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (3,376)
56.2% (15,290)
-5.8%
Power Play
50.7% (296)
58.7% (3,457)
-8.0%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (644)
51.4% (2,826)
-7.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +8.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. McLeod is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,809).
McLeod shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
McLeod
O'Reilly
Home
50.0% (2,202)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
48.9% (2,114)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
McLeod
O'Reilly
P1
50.8%
55.6%
P2
48.0%
57.0%
P3
50.0%
55.0%
OT
37.1%
62.2%
Final 5 min
48.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 15:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 07:09 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 07:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 18:14 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 15:18 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:58 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 19:43 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 18:46 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 02:49 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 13:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 12:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 06:58 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 1 | 03:53 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 19:24 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:30 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:16 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 16:45 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 1 | 14:53 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |