Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +9.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). McLeod wins 45.8% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.4% vs Stamkos 55.4% (-9.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 71.6%
Defensive zone
McLeod 90.9%
Neutral zone
McLeod 80.0%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
McLeod
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
McLeod
Stamkos
Last 5: McLeod 1-4 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
4
McLeod
Stamkos
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
1
0
McLeod
Stamkos
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (827)
57.1% (368)
-8.1%
Power Play
44.0% (91)
55.2% (96)
-11.2%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (272)
50.0% (10)
-7.0%
On power play, Stamkos has a +11.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. McLeod is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (415).
McLeod shoots left. Stamkos is 58.6% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
McLeod
Stamkos
Home
48.5% (619)
53.9% (230)
Away
45.9% (571)
59.0% (244)
By Period
McLeod
Stamkos
P1
52.7%
56.7%
P2
43.9%
54.1%
P3
45.8%
59.2%
OT
35.7%
62.5%
Final 5 min
44.3%
59.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 03:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |