Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 49.5% vs Stamkos 51.1% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Stamkos leads 7-7 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 66.8%
Defensive zone
McLeod 64.8%
Neutral zone
McLeod 50.1%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 57.6%
42.4%
57.6%
McLeod
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
7
(14 meetings)
7
7
McLeod
Stamkos
Last 10: McLeod 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
4
5
McLeod
Stamkos
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
0
McLeod
Stamkos
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stamkos
0
2
McLeod
Stamkos
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (3,376)
50.5% (9,825)
-0.1%
Power Play
50.7% (296)
55.2% (1,729)
-4.5%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (644)
49.6% (827)
-5.5%
On penalty kill, Stamkos has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. McLeod is 49.4% vs right-shot opponents (1,507).
McLeod shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
McLeod
Stamkos
Home
50.0% (2,202)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
48.9% (2,114)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
McLeod
Stamkos
P1
50.8%
49.2%
P2
48.0%
52.7%
P3
50.0%
50.9%
OT
37.1%
54.3%
Final 5 min
48.6%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 03:52 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 00:22 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 16:28 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 3 | 03:54 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 20, 2026 | 2 | 19:52 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:50 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Feb 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Jan 31, 2025 | 3 | 02:07 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 18, 2023 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 3 | 07:58 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 8, 2022 | 2 | 18:02 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 09:42 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 04:07 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 03:20 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |