Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.4% vs Hertl 57.5% (-10.9%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 6-5 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 87.8%
Defensive zone
McLeod 65.9%
Neutral zone
Hertl 66.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 64.4%
35.6%
64.4%
McLeod
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
5
(11 meetings)
6
5
McLeod
Hertl
Last 10: McLeod 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
1
4
McLeod
Hertl
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
4
0
McLeod
Hertl
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
McLeod
Hertl
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (827)
58.7% (858)
-9.7%
Power Play
44.0% (91)
55.8% (285)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
43.0% (272)
62.9% (35)
-19.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
McLeod shoots left. Hertl is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (736).
Home / Away
McLeod
Hertl
Home
48.5% (619)
60.1% (599)
Away
45.9% (571)
56.1% (579)
By Period
McLeod
Hertl
P1
52.7%
52.4%
P2
43.9%
63.9%
P3
45.8%
58.5%
OT
35.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
44.3%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
58.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 14:32 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 03:46 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:51 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:09 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |