Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 49.5% vs Hertl 54.3% (-4.9%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 19-17 in 36 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 78.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 53.1%
Neutral zone
Hertl 66.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 67.6%
32.4%
67.6%
McLeod
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
17
(36 meetings)
19
17
McLeod
Hertl
Last 10: McLeod 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
8
McLeod
Hertl
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
6
4
McLeod
Hertl
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
6
5
McLeod
Hertl
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (3,376)
53.9% (8,303)
-3.5%
Power Play
50.7% (296)
59.2% (1,995)
-8.5%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (644)
46.3% (806)
-2.2%
On power play, Hertl has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. McLeod is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,809).
McLeod shoots left. Hertl is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (6,962).
Home / Away
McLeod
Hertl
Home
50.0% (2,202)
55.8% (5,382)
Away
48.9% (2,114)
52.9% (5,722)
By Period
McLeod
Hertl
P1
50.8%
53.6%
P2
48.0%
54.2%
P3
50.0%
55.3%
OT
37.1%
46.9%
Final 5 min
48.6%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
Hertl
66.0%▲
61.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 14:32 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 11:02 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 08:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 3 | 03:46 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 2 | 08:37 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 17, 2026 | 1 | 11:12 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 08:32 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 05:16 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 07:39 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 03:51 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 1 | 01:09 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:52 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 09:25 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 00:48 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 15:51 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 4, 2025 | 3 | 13:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 07:05 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 3 | 06:50 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 1 | 11:50 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 10, 2024 | 1 | 08:36 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |