Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 47.4% vs Novak 42.5% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
McLeod 55.7%
Defensive zone
McLeod 90.6%
Neutral zone
McLeod 83.4%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 78.6%
78.6%
21.4%
McLeod
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
McLeod
Novak
Last 7: McLeod 6-1 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McLeod
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
3
0
McLeod
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McLeod
2
0
McLeod
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.0% (827)
40.4% (408)
+8.6%
Power Play
44.0% (91)
45.5% (33)
-1.5%
On even strength, McLeod has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. McLeod is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (775).
McLeod shoots left. Novak is 41.6% vs left-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
McLeod
Novak
Home
48.5% (619)
42.0% (212)
Away
45.9% (571)
39.7% (229)
By Period
McLeod
Novak
P1
52.7%
41.9%
P2
43.9%
39.3%
P3
45.8%
42.1%
OT
35.7%
25.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
47.2%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 02:31 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 18:47 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 04:13 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |