Scouting Report
Ryan McLeod holds a +6.8% FO% edge overall. Look for McLeod on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McLeod 49.5% vs Novak 43.0% (+6.8%)
H2H factor
McLeod leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 57.3%
Defensive zone
McLeod 84.0%
Neutral zone
McLeod 64.5%
Result
Ryan McLeod favored at 68.4%
68.4%
31.6%
McLeod
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
McLeod
Novak
Last 10: McLeod 7-3 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
2
McLeod
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McLeod
4
2
McLeod
Novak
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
McLeod
Novak
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McLeod
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (3,376)
41.8% (1,568)
+8.6%
Power Play
50.7% (296)
51.5% (134)
-0.8%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (644)
50.0% (2)
-5.9%
On even strength, McLeod has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. McLeod is 49.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,809).
McLeod shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
McLeod
Novak
Home
50.0% (2,202)
45.1% (831)
Away
48.9% (2,114)
40.2% (873)
By Period
McLeod
Novak
P1
50.8%
43.7%
P2
48.0%
42.8%
P3
50.0%
41.1%
OT
37.1%
57.1%
Final 5 min
48.6%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McLeod
40.0%▼
50.0%
49.4%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 00:50 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 3 | 11:48 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 2 | 02:31 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 18:47 | Neutral | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 04:13 | Offensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 1 | 01:13 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 15:31 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 04:53 | Defensive | Ryan McLeod |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 17:58 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 08:22 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 14:43 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 1 | 13:38 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |