Jean-Gabriel Pageau vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Jean-Gabriel Pageau holds a +10.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on offensive-zone draws (79% H2H, 14 meetings). Pageau wins 55.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pageau 54.8% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% (+10.1%)
H2H factor
Nugent-Hopkins leads 18-12 in 30 meetings
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 79.7%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 63.1%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 75.2%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 73.6%
26.4%
73.6%
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
18
(30 meetings)
12
18
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Pageau 4-6 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
3
11
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
14 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pageau
5
4
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
9 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Pageau
4
3
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
55.8% (9,514)
44.8% (8,775)
+11.0%
Power Play
57.0% (1,007)
50.6% (844)
+6.4%
Penalty Kill
49.6% (2,077)
37.8% (880)
+11.8%
On penalty kill, Pageau has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Pageau is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (8,864).
Pageau shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.8% vs right-shot opponents (3,653).
Home / Away
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
56.3% (6,255)
46.5% (5,361)
Away
53.4% (6,343)
42.8% (5,150)
By Period
Pageau
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
54.7%
45.1%
P2
56.3%
43.9%
P3
53.5%
45.2%
OT
54.4%
43.2%
Final 5 min
53.9%
43.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pageau
58.0%▬
59.0%
54.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2025 | 3 | 16:52 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 14, 2025 | 1 | 19:40 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 12, 2024 | 2 | 01:23 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 14:53 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 13, 2023 | 2 | 09:54 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 14:27 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 10:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 2 | 10:17 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 1 | 17:07 | Offensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 11, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 3 | 00:23 | Neutral | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 1 | 18:42 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 1 | 15:40 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 1 | 13:34 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 23, 2019 | 1 | 03:48 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |
| Feb 28, 2019 | 2 | 10:02 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 22, 2018 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Jean-Gabriel Pageau |