Joe Pavelski vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Joe Pavelski holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Pavelski on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pavelski 50.9% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.3% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pavelski 78.6%
Defensive zone
Pavelski 71.1%
Neutral zone
Pavelski 85.5%
Result
Joe Pavelski favored at 76.3%
76.3%
23.7%
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
1
(7 meetings)
6
1
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 7: Pavelski 6-1 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
1
0
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pavelski
4
0
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (594)
51.0% (408)
+0.5%
Power Play
51.7% (87)
0.0% (6)
+51.7%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (14)
35.9% (78)
-7.3%
On power play, Pavelski has a +51.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Pavelski is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (527).
Pavelski shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Home / Away
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
53.1% (339)
50.8% (258)
Away
49.2% (356)
44.9% (234)
By Period
Pavelski
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
53.8%
51.6%
P2
47.8%
45.2%
P3
50.2%
47.6%
OT
71.4%
40.0%
Final 5 min
48.6%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pavelski
62.0%▲
52.0%
51.1%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
48.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 16:36 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 1 | 04:27 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 13:40 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 13:29 | Neutral | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 05:43 | Defensive | Joe Pavelski |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 16:22 | Offensive | Joe Pavelski |