Mavrik Bourque vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Bourque wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Bourque 47.1% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.7% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Bourque 54.2%
Defensive zone
Bourque 64.9%
Neutral zone
Bourque 55.4%
Result
Mavrik Bourque favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
5
(5 meetings)
0
5
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 5: Bourque 0-5 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
2
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
2
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
46.7% (321)
50.3% (479)
-3.6%
Power Play
33.3% (6)
50.0% (28)
-16.7%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (21)
30.0% (50)
+12.9%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +16.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Bourque is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (269).
Bourque shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 50.9% vs right-shot opponents (173).
Home / Away
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
51.0% (157)
48.9% (270)
Away
42.4% (191)
48.1% (287)
By Period
Bourque
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
44.2%
48.7%
P2
44.7%
50.0%
P3
49.6%
47.3%
OT
0.0%
36.4%
Final 5 min
59.2%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Bourque
48.0%▲
43.5%
46.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 3 | 08:24 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 01:04 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 11:21 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 09:05 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 2 | 08:59 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |