Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Ryan O'Reilly
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +9.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 47.3% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-9.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 81.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 87.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 83.5%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 82.4%
17.6%
82.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Last 5: Nugent-Hopkins 4-1 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
4
0
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
46.0% (250)
55.7% (856)
-9.7%
Power Play
70.6% (17)
57.5% (233)
+13.1%
Penalty Kill
31.8% (22)
50.0% (144)
-18.2%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +18.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.6% vs left-shot opponents (185).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Home
50.3% (175)
55.5% (616)
Away
40.4% (114)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
P1
48.5%
58.1%
P2
45.9%
54.9%
P3
46.5%
53.9%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.7%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
46.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 06:39 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 02:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 10:21 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:58 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |