Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Ryan O'Reilly
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +10.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 45.8% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-10.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 64.6%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 67.3%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 65.5%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 65.7%
65.7%
34.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Last 9: Nugent-Hopkins 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (527)
56.1% (690)
-10.7%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
64.6% (96)
-23.4%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (138)
45.9% (109)
-1.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +23.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (451).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Home
46.1% (336)
58.3% (408)
Away
44.2% (346)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
P1
49.1%
57.7%
P2
45.3%
54.8%
P3
42.0%
55.2%
OT
25.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
39.6%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
45.2%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 08:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 16:22 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 05:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 04:14 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 3 | 00:51 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 26, 2022 | 2 | 16:33 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |