Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 37 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 79-58 in 137 meetings
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 86.3%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 88.0%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 89.7%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 88.1%
88.1%
11.9%
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
58
-
79
(137 meetings)
58
79
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Last 10: Nugent-Hopkins 5-5 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
12
25
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
37 total
Defensive Zone
Even
27
27
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
54 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
19
27
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
46 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (8,714)
56.2% (15,103)
-11.3%
Power Play
50.3% (829)
58.7% (3,395)
-8.4%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (875)
51.6% (2,769)
-13.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,805).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,728).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Home
46.4% (5,318)
57.6% (10,669)
Away
42.9% (5,112)
54.4% (10,631)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
P1
45.1%
55.5%
P2
43.8%
57.0%
P3
45.2%
55.2%
OT
43.5%
62.7%
Final 5 min
43.7%
55.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
44.7%
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:58 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 14:20 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 08:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 03:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 13:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 17:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 13:58 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 05:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 2 | 00:59 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 08:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 06:21 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 16:22 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |