Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Ryan O'Reilly
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +11.3% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (63% H2H, 40 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 44.7% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-11.3%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 80-61 in 141 meetings
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 86.8%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 88.4%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 90.0%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 88.5%
88.5%
11.5%
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
61
-
80
(141 meetings)
61
80
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Last 10: Nugent-Hopkins 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
15
25
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
40 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
27
28
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
55 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
19
27
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
46 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
44.8% (8,775)
56.2% (15,290)
-11.4%
Power Play
50.6% (844)
58.7% (3,457)
-8.1%
Penalty Kill
37.8% (880)
51.4% (2,826)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (6,858).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
Home
46.5% (5,361)
57.6% (10,799)
Away
42.8% (5,150)
54.4% (10,807)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
O'Reilly
P1
45.1%
55.6%
P2
43.9%
57.0%
P3
45.2%
55.0%
OT
43.2%
62.2%
Final 5 min
43.6%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
42.0%▼
48.5%
44.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 06:39 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 02:14 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 17:28 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 10:21 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 08:58 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 17:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 14:20 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 1 | 08:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 03:12 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:15 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 27, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 15:52 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 3 | 11:05 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 13:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 17:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 1 | 13:58 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Oct 17, 2023 | 3 | 05:15 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |