Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tomas Hertl
2022-23 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Nugent-Hopkins on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.6% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 45.8% vs Hertl 54.5% (-9.6%)
H2H factor
Nugent-Hopkins leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hertl 91.8%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 52.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 70.5%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 77.3%
22.7%
77.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Last 10: Nugent-Hopkins 6-4 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
2
4
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
4
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.4% (527)
54.1% (1,117)
-8.7%
Power Play
41.2% (17)
59.8% (296)
-18.6%
Penalty Kill
44.9% (138)
34.4% (32)
+10.5%
On power play, Hertl has a +18.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (451).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Hertl is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (883).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Home
46.1% (336)
54.3% (709)
Away
44.2% (346)
55.3% (736)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
P1
49.1%
51.6%
P2
45.3%
53.6%
P3
42.0%
58.6%
OT
25.0%
45.5%
Final 5 min
39.6%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
45.2%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
54.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 13, 2023 | 3 | 11:33 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 3 | 02:44 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 8, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 20, 2023 | OT | 02:55 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 3 | 04:33 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 18:30 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 15:57 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 1 | 05:48 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 3 | 00:18 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 01:04 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 01:01 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 2 | 00:39 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |