Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Tomas Hertl
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Nugent-Hopkins wins 47.0% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 47.7% vs Hertl 56.6% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hertl 87.4%
Defensive zone
Hertl 61.5%
Neutral zone
Hertl 69.0%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
1
0
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (189)
56.6% (632)
-9.0%
Power Play
100.0% (2)
58.7% (206)
+41.3%
Penalty Kill
29.4% (17)
63.6% (22)
-34.2%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +41.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (132).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Hertl is 56.1% vs left-shot opponents (529).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
Home
48.5% (132)
59.7% (434)
Away
43.4% (76)
54.9% (426)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Hertl
P1
51.4%
51.0%
P2
41.3%
64.0%
P3
48.5%
57.8%
OT
0.0%
30.8%
Final 5 min
44.1%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
48.0%▲
46.5%
46.6%
Hertl
58.0%▬
58.5%
57.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | 3 | 05:12 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |