Scouting Report
Bo Horvat holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Horvat wins 55.7% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Horvat 55.9% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 58.2%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 60.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 62.1%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 60.5%
39.5%
60.5%
Horvat
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
6
(9 meetings)
3
6
Horvat
O'Reilly
Last 9: Horvat 3-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Horvat
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Horvat
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Horvat
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Horvat
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.4% (713)
55.7% (856)
-0.3%
Power Play
63.2% (242)
57.5% (233)
+5.7%
Penalty Kill
48.1% (104)
50.0% (144)
-1.9%
On power play, Horvat has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Horvat is 55.7% vs left-shot opponents (616).
Horvat shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Horvat
O'Reilly
Home
59.0% (515)
55.5% (616)
Away
54.0% (544)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Horvat
O'Reilly
P1
59.6%
58.1%
P2
53.9%
54.9%
P3
56.2%
53.9%
OT
55.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
59.6%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Horvat
66.0%▲
56.5%
56.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 17:49 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 11:37 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 08:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 01:19 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 18:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 14:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 07:21 | Neutral | Bo Horvat |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 15:05 | Defensive | Bo Horvat |