Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Roslovic wins 54.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roslovic 52.1% vs O'Reilly 55.0% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roslovic 52.0%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 69.7%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 66.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 65.3%
34.7%
65.3%
Roslovic
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Roslovic
O'Reilly
Last 5: Roslovic 3-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roslovic
1
0
Roslovic
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Roslovic
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roslovic
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (219)
55.7% (856)
-3.2%
Power Play
57.9% (19)
57.5% (233)
+0.4%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +3.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Roslovic is 54.1% vs left-shot opponents (181).
Roslovic shoots right. O'Reilly is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (530).
Home / Away
Roslovic
O'Reilly
Home
49.6% (121)
55.5% (616)
Away
56.4% (117)
55.3% (617)
By Period
Roslovic
O'Reilly
P1
52.2%
58.1%
P2
56.6%
54.9%
P3
50.6%
53.9%
OT
33.3%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.3%
56.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roslovic
58.0%▲
52.5%
52.9%
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 3 | 13:02 | Defensive | Jack Roslovic |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 12:16 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 2 | 12:04 | Offensive | Jack Roslovic |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 1 | 18:52 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 6, 2026 | 2 | 15:05 | Defensive | Jack Roslovic |