Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.7% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.0% vs Monahan 52.5% (+2.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 52.4%
Defensive zone
Monahan 53.8%
Neutral zone
Monahan 54.1%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
O'Reilly
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
O'Reilly
Monahan
Last 6: O'Reilly 3-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
O'Reilly
Monahan
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
O'Reilly
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (856)
53.0% (874)
+2.7%
Power Play
57.5% (233)
54.7% (161)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (144)
47.5% (101)
+2.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
O'Reilly shoots left. Monahan is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (710).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Monahan
Home
55.5% (616)
53.8% (558)
Away
55.3% (617)
51.7% (578)
By Period
O'Reilly
Monahan
P1
58.1%
49.5%
P2
54.9%
54.8%
P3
53.9%
52.8%
OT
50.0%
61.9%
Final 5 min
56.3%
53.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
52.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:25 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |