Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (68% H2H, 63 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Monahan 51.2% (+4.8%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 78-67 in 145 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 58.4%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 79.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 68.3%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
O'Reilly
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
78
-
67
(145 meetings)
78
67
O'Reilly
Monahan
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
18
32
O'Reilly
Monahan
50 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
43
20
O'Reilly
Monahan
63 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
17
15
O'Reilly
Monahan
32 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,290)
51.1% (11,407)
+5.1%
Power Play
58.7% (3,457)
53.6% (2,582)
+5.1%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,826)
45.9% (772)
+5.5%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
O'Reilly shoots left. Monahan is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (9,335).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Monahan
Home
57.6% (10,799)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
54.4% (10,807)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
O'Reilly
Monahan
P1
55.6%
51.0%
P2
57.0%
51.7%
P3
55.0%
51.0%
OT
62.2%
53.5%
Final 5 min
55.3%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:25 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 3, 2026 | 3 | 07:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 05:48 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 00:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 2 | 19:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 1 | 10:47 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 06:23 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 18:06 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 09:24 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 03:40 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 16:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Apr 1, 2025 | 1 | 00:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2024 | OT | 00:11 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 15:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 12:04 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |