Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.4% vs 55.5%). Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.0% vs Crosby 55.1% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Crosby leads 15-14 in 29 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 67.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 64.1%
Neutral zone
Crosby 52.8%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 51.6%
51.6%
48.4%
O'Reilly
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
15
(29 meetings)
14
15
O'Reilly
Crosby
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
1
O'Reilly
Crosby
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
5
6
O'Reilly
Crosby
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
6
8
O'Reilly
Crosby
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (856)
53.3% (1,025)
+2.4%
Power Play
57.5% (233)
64.7% (249)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (144)
60.0% (15)
-10.0%
On penalty kill, Crosby has a +10.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
O'Reilly shoots left. Crosby is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (914).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Crosby
Home
55.5% (616)
56.9% (675)
Away
55.3% (617)
54.1% (614)
By Period
O'Reilly
Crosby
P1
58.1%
55.1%
P2
54.9%
53.1%
P3
53.9%
58.5%
OT
50.0%
54.2%
Final 5 min
56.3%
54.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
55.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:22 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:32 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:05 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 14, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 19:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |