Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 72 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Crosby shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Crosby 53.5% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 112-91 in 203 meetings
Offensive zone
Crosby 61.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 62.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
O'Reilly
Crosby
Head-to-Head Record
112
-
91
(203 meetings)
112
91
O'Reilly
Crosby
Last 10: O'Reilly 5-5 Crosby
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Crosby
30
44
O'Reilly
Crosby
74 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
54
18
O'Reilly
Crosby
72 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Crosby
28
29
O'Reilly
Crosby
57 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Crosby
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,290)
52.8% (18,031)
+3.4%
Power Play
58.7% (3,457)
57.4% (4,741)
+1.3%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,826)
47.0% (766)
+4.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +4.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Crosby shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
O'Reilly shoots left. Crosby is 53.3% vs left-shot opponents (14,886).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Crosby
Home
57.6% (10,799)
55.0% (11,998)
Away
54.4% (10,807)
52.0% (11,559)
By Period
O'Reilly
Crosby
P1
55.6%
53.6%
P2
57.0%
53.8%
P3
55.0%
53.3%
OT
62.2%
49.6%
Final 5 min
55.3%
52.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Crosby
46.0%▼
54.0%
53.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 15:47 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 10:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 03:22 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:27 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 17:01 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 15:08 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 03:32 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 19:35 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 11:45 | Defensive | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 02:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:05 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 16, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sidney Crosby |
| Nov 14, 2025 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 19:17 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 14, 2025 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Sidney Crosby |