Ryan O'Reilly vs Steven Stamkos
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Stamkos on offensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 35 meetings). O'Reilly wins 55.7% vs right-shot opponents — Stamkos shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Stamkos 51.1% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 46-44 in 90 meetings
Offensive zone
Stamkos 54.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 62.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 61.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 55.5%
55.5%
44.5%
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
46
-
44
(90 meetings)
46
44
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Last 10: O'Reilly 4-6 Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stamkos
15
20
O'Reilly
Stamkos
35 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
18
13
O'Reilly
Stamkos
31 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
13
11
O'Reilly
Stamkos
24 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,290)
50.5% (9,825)
+5.7%
Power Play
58.7% (3,457)
55.2% (1,729)
+3.5%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,826)
49.6% (827)
+1.8%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +5.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,705).
O'Reilly shoots left. Stamkos is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (8,806).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Stamkos
Home
57.6% (10,799)
52.8% (6,270)
Away
54.4% (10,807)
49.3% (6,137)
By Period
O'Reilly
Stamkos
P1
55.6%
49.2%
P2
57.0%
52.7%
P3
55.0%
50.9%
OT
62.2%
54.3%
Final 5 min
55.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Stamkos
66.0%▲
56.5%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 11:45 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 3 | 08:07 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 09:27 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 2 | 02:37 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 19:08 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 7, 2023 | 1 | 14:29 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 11:12 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 09:44 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:11 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 18:30 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 2 | 00:55 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1 | 16:55 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 10, 2023 | 1 | 16:33 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 3 | 18:29 | Offensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Apr 11, 2023 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 3 | 00:49 | Defensive | Steven Stamkos |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 18:55 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 25, 2022 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |