Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +16.9% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.4% vs Zegras 41.5% (+16.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 50.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 90.6%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 79.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 79.2%
79.2%
20.8%
O'Reilly
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
O'Reilly
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,064)
39.4% (510)
+17.2%
Power Play
60.4% (260)
47.1% (34)
+13.3%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +17.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
O'Reilly shoots left. Zegras is 37.7% vs left-shot opponents (353).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Zegras
Home
54.9% (801)
42.3% (272)
Away
58.7% (784)
37.5% (272)
By Period
O'Reilly
Zegras
P1
58.0%
37.6%
P2
56.7%
41.5%
P3
55.4%
40.8%
OT
64.7%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.4%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
56.8%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
39.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2022 | 3 | 17:19 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |