Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +22.5% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 55.0% vs Zegras 37.0% (+22.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zegras 64.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 76.3%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 65.6%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 63.5%
63.5%
36.5%
O'Reilly
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
O'Reilly
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
O'Reilly
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
55.7% (856)
33.0% (264)
+22.7%
Power Play
57.5% (233)
32.1% (56)
+25.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (144)
50.0% (2)
+0.0%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (703).
O'Reilly shoots left. Zegras is 32.5% vs left-shot opponents (200).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Zegras
Home
55.5% (616)
35.3% (173)
Away
55.3% (617)
30.2% (149)
By Period
O'Reilly
Zegras
P1
58.1%
33.0%
P2
54.9%
35.7%
P3
53.9%
29.7%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.3%
29.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
55.4%
Zegras
42.0%▲
28.0%
32.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 14:04 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |