Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +20.1% FO% edge overall. O'Reilly wins 55.8% vs left-shot opponents — Zegras shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 54.7% vs Zegras 40.4% (+20.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
O'Reilly
Zegras
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
O'Reilly
Zegras
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
0
O'Reilly
Zegras
1 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
O'Reilly
Zegras
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zegras
0
1
O'Reilly
Zegras
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Zegras
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (669)
33.6% (143)
+21.0%
Power Play
57.3% (171)
39.0% (41)
+18.3%
Penalty Kill
56.3% (87)
100.0% (1)
-43.7%
On penalty kill, Zegras has a +43.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zegras shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.8% vs left-shot opponents (530).
O'Reilly shoots left. Zegras is 34.7% vs left-shot opponents (118).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Zegras
Home
56.4% (486)
31.6% (98)
Away
54.0% (441)
39.1% (87)
By Period
O'Reilly
Zegras
P1
55.3%
38.9%
P2
53.4%
38.0%
P3
56.9%
27.1%
OT
55.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
57.9%
29.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
56.0%▲
54.5%
55.2%
Zegras
26.0%▼
35.5%
35.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 6, 2025 | 2 | 14:04 | Neutral | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 10:34 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 3 | 04:04 | Defensive | Trevor Zegras |
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |