Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +13.6% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). O'Reilly wins 56.2% vs left-shot opponents — Trenin shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.0% vs Trenin 43.7% (+13.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 61.1%
Defensive zone
Trenin 60.0%
Neutral zone
Trenin 58.3%
Result
Yakov Trenin favored at 52.8%
47.2%
52.8%
O'Reilly
Trenin
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
O'Reilly
Trenin
Last 9: O'Reilly 4-5 Trenin
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
0
O'Reilly
Trenin
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Trenin
1
4
O'Reilly
Trenin
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trenin
0
1
O'Reilly
Trenin
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Trenin
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (15,290)
43.0% (356)
+13.2%
Power Play
58.7% (3,457)
33.3% (6)
+25.4%
Penalty Kill
51.4% (2,826)
41.0% (105)
+10.4%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trenin shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,901).
O'Reilly shoots left. Trenin is 43.5% vs left-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Trenin
Home
57.6% (10,799)
45.6% (248)
Away
54.4% (10,807)
38.8% (219)
By Period
O'Reilly
Trenin
P1
55.6%
42.7%
P2
57.0%
47.7%
P3
55.0%
35.2%
Final 5 min
55.3%
39.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▬
55.0%
56.0%
Trenin
44.0%▲
40.5%
42.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 12:42 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Yakov Trenin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 19:11 | Defensive | Yakov Trenin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 14:34 | Defensive | Yakov Trenin |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 08:56 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 01:24 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 09:16 | Defensive | Yakov Trenin |
| Oct 27, 2022 | 3 | 10:53 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:17 | Neutral | Yakov Trenin |