Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.6% vs 47.7%). Look for Guentzel on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Guentzel 48.1% vs Poehling 48.0% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Guentzel 84.8%
Defensive zone
Poehling 85.6%
Neutral zone
Poehling 54.8%
Result
Jake Guentzel favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Guentzel
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Guentzel
Poehling
Last 5: Guentzel 3-2 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Guentzel
3
0
Guentzel
Poehling
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
2
Guentzel
Poehling
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Guentzel
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (230)
50.4% (680)
-1.3%
Power Play
44.9% (118)
58.3% (12)
-13.4%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (26)
38.8% (219)
+7.4%
On power play, Poehling has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Guentzel is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (238).
Guentzel shoots left. Poehling is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (615).
Home / Away
Guentzel
Poehling
Home
50.2% (205)
47.4% (422)
Away
44.4% (169)
48.1% (489)
By Period
Guentzel
Poehling
P1
47.6%
53.3%
P2
49.0%
40.3%
P3
46.2%
50.0%
OT
42.9%
40.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Guentzel
54.0%▲
47.0%
47.6%
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 06:12 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 09:24 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 2 | 02:11 | Offensive | Jake Guentzel |