Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Poehling on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 40.6% vs left-shot opponents — Poehling shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.0% vs Poehling 47.9% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 84.3%
Defensive zone
Poehling 69.7%
Neutral zone
Poehling 50.6%
Result
Ryan Poehling favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Marner
Poehling
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Marner
Poehling
Last 5: Marner 2-3 Poehling
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
1
0
Marner
Poehling
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
1
2
Marner
Poehling
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
0
1
Marner
Poehling
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
Poehling
Edge
Even Strength
41.4% (302)
50.5% (666)
-9.1%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
58.3% (12)
-18.3%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
38.6% (215)
-13.6%
On power play, Poehling has a +18.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Poehling shoots left. Marner is 40.6% vs left-shot opponents (234).
Marner shoots right. Poehling is 51.2% vs right-shot opponents (295).
Home / Away
Marner
Poehling
Home
36.6% (172)
47.3% (404)
Away
45.6% (147)
48.1% (489)
By Period
Marner
Poehling
P1
40.8%
53.5%
P2
40.5%
40.1%
P3
41.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.6%
51.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
46.0%▲
42.5%
40.8%
Poehling
58.0%▲
52.5%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | 3 | 00:47 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Feb 1, 2026 | 1 | 05:48 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 3 | 07:04 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 8, 2025 | 2 | 17:28 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |