Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poehling 48.3% vs Novak 43.0% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 85.8%
Defensive zone
Poehling 71.7%
Neutral zone
Novak 59.4%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 59.6%
40.4%
59.6%
Poehling
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Poehling
Novak
Last 10: Poehling 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
6
Poehling
Novak
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
4
1
Poehling
Novak
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
1
Poehling
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poehling
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.6% (2,780)
41.8% (1,568)
+7.8%
Power Play
51.6% (93)
51.5% (134)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
41.7% (635)
50.0% (2)
-8.3%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Poehling is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,357).
Poehling shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Poehling
Novak
Home
49.3% (1,706)
45.1% (831)
Away
47.2% (1,802)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Poehling
Novak
P1
50.8%
43.7%
P2
47.1%
42.8%
P3
47.2%
41.1%
OT
40.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
48.0%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poehling
60.0%▲
53.5%
48.2%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 09:26 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 09:21 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 01:51 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:13 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 07:51 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:47 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 06:57 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 12:03 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 12:49 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:17 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 04:43 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 01:52 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |