Scouting Report
Ryan Poehling holds a +4.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Poehling 48.1% vs Novak 43.6% (+4.9%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 85.5%
Defensive zone
Poehling 70.4%
Neutral zone
Novak 57.1%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 59.4%
40.6%
59.4%
Poehling
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
8
(14 meetings)
6
8
Poehling
Novak
Last 10: Poehling 5-5 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
6
Poehling
Novak
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Poehling
4
1
Poehling
Novak
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Poehling
2
1
Poehling
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Poehling
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
49.1% (2,540)
42.2% (1,366)
+6.9%
Power Play
50.6% (87)
53.3% (120)
-2.7%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (548)
50.0% (2)
-7.7%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Poehling is 47.3% vs left-shot opponents (2,135).
Poehling shoots left. Novak is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (955).
Home / Away
Poehling
Novak
Home
49.7% (1,506)
46.0% (737)
Away
46.5% (1,669)
40.3% (751)
By Period
Poehling
Novak
P1
50.7%
43.9%
P2
47.8%
44.2%
P3
46.0%
40.9%
OT
40.9%
100.0%
Final 5 min
47.4%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Poehling
58.0%▲
46.5%
48.0%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 09:26 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 09:21 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 3 | 01:51 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Nov 27, 2024 | 1 | 18:13 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 3 | 07:51 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 11:47 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 06:57 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 12:03 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 12:49 | Neutral | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 09:17 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 04:43 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 3 | 01:52 | Defensive | Ryan Poehling |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 2 | 10:17 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 30, 2023 | 1 | 18:24 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |