Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +1.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Monahan on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 52.2% vs Monahan 51.2% (+1.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 86.5%
Defensive zone
Carrick 78.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 60.6%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 59.0%
41.0%
59.0%
Carrick
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Carrick
Monahan
Last 8: Carrick 2-6 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
4
Carrick
Monahan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
1
Carrick
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Carrick
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (2,544)
51.1% (11,407)
+1.1%
Power Play
61.3% (75)
53.6% (2,582)
+7.7%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (435)
45.9% (772)
+4.9%
On power play, Carrick has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Carrick shoots right. Monahan is 50.4% vs right-shot opponents (5,426).
Home / Away
Carrick
Monahan
Home
51.5% (1,477)
52.3% (7,387)
Away
53.0% (1,577)
50.2% (7,374)
By Period
Carrick
Monahan
P1
51.8%
51.0%
P2
52.3%
51.7%
P3
52.6%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
53.5%
Final 5 min
49.9%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Monahan
40.0%▼
51.0%
51.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 10:13 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Nov 15, 2025 | 2 | 07:01 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 07:20 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 3 | 03:04 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 2 | 13:13 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 16, 2022 | 2 | 04:24 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 11:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 3, 2021 | 2 | 06:17 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |