Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Carrick wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 54.2% vs Novak 42.5% (+14.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 60.2%
Defensive zone
Carrick 92.2%
Neutral zone
Carrick 79.1%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 57.3%
57.3%
42.7%
Carrick
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Carrick
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Carrick
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
0
Carrick
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (470)
40.4% (408)
+15.1%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
45.5% (33)
+21.2%
On power play, Carrick has a +21.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Carrick shoots right. Novak is 39.4% vs right-shot opponents (155).
Home / Away
Carrick
Novak
Home
58.6% (261)
42.0% (212)
Away
51.5% (270)
39.7% (229)
By Period
Carrick
Novak
P1
55.9%
41.9%
P2
53.5%
39.3%
P3
55.6%
42.1%
OT
50.0%
25.0%
Final 5 min
56.0%
39.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
40.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 03:58 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:19 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |