Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +9.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 52.2% vs Novak 43.0% (+9.7%)
H2H factor
Novak leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Novak 91.6%
Defensive zone
Carrick 60.6%
Neutral zone
Novak 74.7%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 75.8%
24.2%
75.8%
Carrick
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Carrick
Novak
Last 10: Carrick 3-7 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
1
6
Carrick
Novak
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
1
Carrick
Novak
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
0
Carrick
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (2,544)
41.8% (1,568)
+10.4%
Power Play
61.3% (75)
51.5% (134)
+9.8%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (435)
50.0% (2)
+0.8%
On even strength, Carrick has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Carrick shoots right. Novak is 41.6% vs right-shot opponents (611).
Home / Away
Carrick
Novak
Home
51.5% (1,477)
45.1% (831)
Away
53.0% (1,577)
40.2% (873)
By Period
Carrick
Novak
P1
51.8%
43.7%
P2
52.3%
42.8%
P3
52.6%
41.1%
OT
50.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
49.9%
40.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Novak
32.0%▼
39.5%
42.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 03:58 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 12:06 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 7, 2025 | 3 | 18:19 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 2 | 14:54 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 17:17 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:12 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 09:54 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 2 | 09:48 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 09:04 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Jan 9, 2024 | 1 | 05:21 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 30, 2022 | 3 | 10:19 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |