Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +4.2% FO% edge overall. Carrick wins 54.8% vs left-shot opponents — Ostapchuk shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 54.2% vs Ostapchuk 50.6% (+4.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Ostapchuk 55.4%
Defensive zone
Carrick 61.7%
Neutral zone
Carrick 51.9%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
0
Carrick
Ostapchuk
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Ostapchuk
0
1
Carrick
Ostapchuk
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
55.5% (470)
52.5% (320)
+3.0%
Power Play
66.7% (3)
33.3% (3)
+33.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (58)
42.4% (59)
+7.6%
On power play, Carrick has a +33.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Carrick is 54.8% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Carrick shoots right. Ostapchuk is 53.0% vs right-shot opponents (117).
Home / Away
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Home
58.6% (261)
49.1% (171)
Away
51.5% (270)
52.1% (211)
By Period
Carrick
Ostapchuk
P1
55.9%
50.4%
P2
53.5%
46.8%
P3
55.6%
55.1%
Final 5 min
56.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
55.0%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
50.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 09:05 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |