Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Carrick 52.2% vs Ostapchuk 48.7% (+3.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Carrick 51.2%
Defensive zone
Carrick 82.5%
Neutral zone
Carrick 72.7%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 75.2%
75.2%
24.8%
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Last 8: Carrick 5-3 Ostapchuk
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
0
Carrick
Ostapchuk
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Carrick
Ostapchuk
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Edge
Even Strength
52.2% (2,544)
49.1% (632)
+3.1%
Power Play
61.3% (75)
28.6% (7)
+32.7%
Penalty Kill
50.8% (435)
45.5% (66)
+5.3%
On power play, Carrick has a +32.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Ostapchuk shoots left. Carrick is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (2,211).
Carrick shoots right. Ostapchuk is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (220).
Home / Away
Carrick
Ostapchuk
Home
51.5% (1,477)
48.6% (329)
Away
53.0% (1,577)
48.4% (376)
By Period
Carrick
Ostapchuk
P1
51.8%
48.5%
P2
52.3%
46.4%
P3
52.6%
50.7%
Final 5 min
49.9%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Carrick
60.0%▲
57.0%
52.3%
Ostapchuk
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 09:05 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 02:46 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 02:34 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 12:04 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 12:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 09:57 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 03:34 | Neutral | Zack Ostapchuk |
| Nov 1, 2024 | 3 | 11:05 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |