Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (46.8% vs 45.9%). MacKinnon wins 46.0% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
MacKinnon 46.8% vs Gagner 46.0% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gagner 59.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 58.5%
Neutral zone
Gagner 57.1%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
MacKinnon
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
MacKinnon
Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
2
MacKinnon
Gagner
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
1
MacKinnon
Gagner
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
0
MacKinnon
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
MacKinnon
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (11,255)
45.4% (4,699)
+0.7%
Power Play
53.2% (1,418)
51.5% (928)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
42.8% (502)
35.0% (226)
+7.8%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,649).
MacKinnon shoots right. Gagner is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,684).
Home / Away
MacKinnon
Gagner
Home
49.7% (6,459)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
43.9% (6,717)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
MacKinnon
Gagner
P1
47.4%
44.6%
P2
46.6%
46.1%
P3
46.1%
47.3%
OT
48.4%
42.0%
Final 5 min
49.1%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
MacKinnon
44.0%▼
51.5%
46.8%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2019 | 2 | 06:36 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 25, 2014 | 3 | 01:05 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Apr 8, 2014 | 3 | 00:38 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Apr 8, 2014 | 2 | 11:27 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |